Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China has released its latest market forecast for the period 2018-2037.
Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd. (COMAC) has released a new commercial aircraft market forecast for the period 2018-2037.
The report forecasts that global Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) will increase at an average annual rate of 4.46% over the next 20 years, based on an average growth rate of global economy of about 2.9%. COMAC expects more than 42,702 new aircraft valued about $6 trillion (based on 2017 list prices) will be delivered globally to replace retired aircraft and support the fleet development.
By comparison, Airbus forecasts a requirement for 37,400 new aircraft, including freighters, at a value of $5.8 trillion over the same period.
According to the COMAC forecast, total deliveries will include 4,816 regional jets (valued at more than $226.2bn), 29,691 single-aisle jets ($2,980bn) and 8,195 widebody jets ($2,560bn) will be delivered.
The Asia-Pacific share of the global aircraft fleet is forecasted to increase from 31% now to 41% in 2037; and the Chinese market share, from 16% now to 21%.
The report forecasts that the Chinese aircraft fleet will grow at an average annual rate of 5.3%, while RPKs will see annual growth of 6.5%. By 2037, China's RPKs will reach 3.9 trillion, 21% of global RPKs.
The Chinese fleet is expected to reach 9,965 by 2037, including 6,656 single-aisle jets, 2,343 widebodies and 966 regional jets. It is estimated that 9,008 aircraft valued at $1,300bn will be delivered to China in the next 20 years, broken down as follows: 5,964 single-aisle jets, including 4,284 aircraft in the 160-seat category; 2,102 widebody jets, including 1,421 in the 250-seat category; and 942 regional jets, mostly in the 90-seat category.