Honeywell’s 26th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 8,300 new business jet deliveries worth $249bn from 2017 to 2027, down 2-3 percentage points from the 2016 10-year forecast.

Negative factors include declining used aircraft prices, continued low commodities prices, and economic and political uncertainties in many business jet markets.

Approximately 620-640 new jets are expected to be delivered in 2017, a decline of roughly 30 aircraft year over year. This pullback, following a moderate decrease in 2016, is seen as being largely due to slower order rates for mature airplane models and a transition to new models slated for late 2017 and 2018.

Of the total purchase plans for new business jets, 19% are intended to occur by the end of 2018, while 17% and 14% are scheduled for 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, ranging from the super mid-size through ultralong range, which are expected to account for more than 85% of all expenditures on new business jets in the next five years.

The longer-range forecast through 2027 projects a 3-4% average annual growth rate despite the lower short-term outlook as new models and projected improved economic performance will contribute to industry growth.

Declines in five-year operator purchase plans are offset in the long-term forecast by new programs entering service, improved economic performance and higher commodity prices, resulting in only a small decline in the overall outlook.